How do you navigate the desert of ignorance without relevant empirical priors?
The nature of Fuzzy's* very existence forces us to tackle an annoying question that is likely to have several reasonable answers:
What should you do if you're faced with a problem that you have to analyze and answer but where you have no relevant empirical priors?
Several different strategies have been described. Which do you prefer? Do you change strategies depending on the situation?
* the jerk
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
More information needed.
If faced with a new problem outside my expertise I generally either look for comparable situations and extrapolate from there or research* it. But your question seems to rule out those options.
Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
Poke it with a stick.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
My general approach is to say it's just unknown, outline likely scenarios/paths, and move on. I've always preferred to explicitly address contradicting ideas and their merits in my analyses anyway, this is really just a facet of that. That's if it's something I HAVE to analyze and answer. If it's not something I HAVE to analyze and answer, I'm content to live in a world where there are things which are just unknown. Most of it isn't going to really impact me after all, there's no reason to try and have a definitive answer/opinion.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
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