Would Parliament ignore a Brexit vote?
In response to this post: http://theworldforgotten.com/showthr...418#post172418
This is surely a classic case of QTWAIN
There may be an overwhelming majority for Remain in the Commons today, but that is before the referendum was held and from when Remain was (and still is) overwhelming favourites to win. If Leave somehow wins the facts will be changed, so minds will be too. Easier to look at this party by party on what would happen if there is a Leave vote:
Tories: The party is very sceptical. leadership have strongly pushed for Remain leading to a majority of MPs backing Remain. The leadership will have no choice but to accept the result (in fact almost certainly Cameron will resign if there is a Leave vote). Under a Leave leader with a leave vote in the referendum I suspect almost all Tories would end up backing Leave. Any who didn't would be at serious risk in 2020 for either deselection or by a challenge. Potentially only Kenneth Clarke would remain a Tory Europhile if there's a leave vote, everyone else will accept the result and try to make it work.
SNP: Utterly opposed to Leave (ironic given leaving the UK is their reason to exist) but would again have no choice but to respect a leave vote. To suggest the populace voting for independence could be overruled by MPs is the last thing the SNP would want. Instead of obstructing the vote they'll try to use it to their advantage, probably demanding a second Indyref occurs in the two year period before we Leave the EU.
Labour: Dominated by a Remain groupthink despite the fact a large proportion of their traditional working class support is pro-Leave. Even their leader is a lifelong far left opponent of the EU who would likely vote to leave if he hadn't unexpectedly become leader. But UKIP are now second in a lot of working class seats and would be a real challenger if anyone decided to ignore the referendum. A large proportion of this party would be willing to do as implied despite all this but I suspect a leave vote would shatter the groupthink there.
UKIP/DUP: Back Leave already. A Leave vote followed by Parliament attempting to obstruct it would be a dream come true for UKIP. Leaving is the death of UKIP but this would not only be the only way they'll survive as a party, but they'd stand a great chance to become a major party by taking the seats off any MPs who obstructed a Leave vote.
Lib Dems: Most Europhile of the parties but already down to only 8 MPs anyway and at serious risk of going down to just 4 in 2020 already. Unlikely to count in a reckoning.
Assorted others largely irrelevant.
Overall if there's a Leave vote we'll Leave. It would be foolish of anyone to look at pre-referendum tallies and assume naively they'll be the same post-referendum. You can't uncrack an egg.
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PS this isn't to say we won't have an EEA-style agreement if there's a Leave vote. I'd say that's most likely, but it will be so because the [new] government had negotiated it, not because Parliament had foisted it upon the government.
Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
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