Euro 2016 £50mn prediction competition (Edit: And a maths challenge)

[RandBlade]

Euro 2016 is coming up and Vote Leave have launched a cheeky free-to-enter (for British voters) competition to win £50mn* by predicting the results of the tournament. Rather than discuss politics I thought it could be fun to see predictions from people.

These are my predictions I've entered into the competition: https://www.50million.uk/Competition...b-2d72b775e675

Winner is Germany against Spain in the finals. France knock us out. Ukraine plays Russia in the knockout stages which could be very interesting under the circumstances.

* The amount they claim is our daily amount spent on the EU though it's a somewhat dodgy stat.

EDIT: See post 4 for a maths challenge.

[Flixy]

I predict the Netherlands will get zero goals against

[RandBlade]

As will Scotland.

[RandBlade]

Been discussing what the odds are of actually winning this and they're ridiculously small. Got to get 35 group stages right (three possible permutations per game) and 15 knockout games right (2 possibilities per gam).

If it was purely random then that's 1/(3^36*2^15) which is a one in 4.9E+21 chance. 21 zeroes.

However it's not purely random, some results are more likely than others. So lets say if we were to be generous there was a 65% chance of getting a group stage result right and a 75% chance of getting a knockout stage result right. By my reckoning that increases your chances to a still incredibly remote one in 406 billion.

But this is eligible for free to all eligible UK voters. Lets assume (though it won't happen) that 30 million people entered this competition, approximately the number of people who voted last general election ... with a one in 406 billion shot each. What are the odds that somebody would win the £50mn? I'm struggling to figure that out.

[Loki]

My money's on Leicester.