Finnish Election Torpedoes Portugal Bailout

[Dreadnaught]

April 17, 2011
Vote in Finland Could Doom Economic Bailout of Portugal

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

HELSINKI, Finland (AP) — Finnish voters on Sunday dealt a blow to Europe’s plans to rescue Portugal and other debt-ridden economies, ousting the pro-bailout government and giving a major lift to a nationalist party skeptical of bailouts and the euro zone.

With all ballots counted, the biggest winner was the conservative National Coalition Party, part of the outgoing center-right government and a strong advocate for European integration.

But its main ally, the Center Party, led by Prime Minister Mari Kiviniemi, said it would drop out of the government after falling behind two opposition parties that have challenged bailouts of euro zone countries: The anti-immigration True Finns do not believe Finland should rescue Europe’s “squanderers,” while the Social Democrats have called for changes to how those countries are financed.

The outcome means that the National Coalition leader, Jyrki Katainen, will have to invite at least one of the parties to coalition talks, raising questions about Finland’s support for rescue packages that need unanimous approval in the 17-member euro zone.

“This result will give Europe gray hairs,” said Olavi Borg, a political analyst. “It will cause them problems over the bailout funds.”

If any country pulled out, the system would crash, leading to a worsening of the debt crisis at a time when the group is deciding whether bailouts will end with Portugal or will also be needed for larger economies like Spain’s or Italy’s.

The conservatives won 20 percent of the vote, for 44 seats in the 200-member Parliament, 2 more than the Social Democrats. The True Finns soared to 39 seats from 6. The results were preliminary and needed to be confirmed by electoral committees by Wednesday.

“We can work with any party, as long as the election result and government program make it possible,” said Mr. Katainen, the National Coalition leader.

Asked if he could strike a deal with the True Finns on aid to Portugal, Mr. Katainen said, “When responsible people sit at the table and discuss matters with Finland’s interests at heart, then solutions always will be found.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/18/wo...18finland.html

So, who did you vote for Nessie?

More importantly, if Portugal's bailout doesn't happen, what do folks think would happen next? A "Coalition of the Willing" to unilaterally bail-out Portugal, accept restructured Greek debt, etc?

[earthJoker]

In the end the Germans pay for it anyway

[Nessus]

So, who did you vote for Nessie?

Erkki Tuomioja.

[Hazir]

PR politics 101 for Americans

1. every politician is against eroding national power, but they are against the EU about the same way every US politician is against 'Washington'
2. elections are about every party for itself, you don't necessarily try to appeal to all voters. Everybody knows that after the elections a government has to be formed on the basis of a coalition (if you're not Belgian) so what you really get is a severely watered down version of the most extreme parts of a coalition. EG, we have Wilder's PVV vehemently anti-islam/immigration party in a faux-coalition and yet the government recently decided to relax immigration rules for Turks. Also, I am still waiting for David Cameron's tough approach towards Europe.
3. we don't really have winners of elections, we have reshuffles of score lists. In the case of these 'True Fins', they probably shake up things in Finland a bit, but no-one should forget that they still are the third party in the parliament, and that the biggest party is pro-EU.

[Nessus]

"Finns"

[Hazir]

"Finns"

Suomi

[Dreadnaught]

Yes, but clearly if they are needed to create a government they aren't going to back down on a major part of their platform right after the election, nyet?

[EyeKhan]

Erkki Tuomioja.

Is that the Nationalist Party candidate?

[Flixy]

Yes, but clearly if they are needed to create a government they aren't going to back down on a major part of their platform right after the election, nyet?

This reasoning would sometimes surprise you. Wilders made a big point about not raising retirement age, but reversed completely within one day after the election. Populist parties, more than other parties, tend to promise the entire sky, and apparently count on their voter base to forget they never got anything by the time of the next election.

Also, with 20% of the votes they don't have to be in the government, do they? Over here one time the biggest party was not even in the coalition, a lot of the other parties simply formed a bloc without them. Vlaams Blok/Vlaams Belang was also never included in any coalitions in Belgium, and they are fairly big.

[Hazir]

Yes, but clearly if they are needed to create a government they aren't going to back down on a major part of their platform right after the election, nyet?

If they are needed to create a majority begins with a rather big 'if'. The reality for a party which doesn't even have a plurality is that they hardly ever are needed and that it is them who want to be part of government. Which inevitably comes with huge sacrifices wrt of the election platform. The example Flixy gave is just a single one on a list that has no end. The leaders of these parties are in a position that's hardly different from that of the US president with a hostile Congress. He may want things but they may be well out of reach.

Interestingly we see what happens if a party that is considered 'needed' is not really all that interested in ruling. Like the NVA in Belgium. For the other Flemish parties it would be political suicide to join a federal government that does not include the NVA. The NVA on the other hand is not overly worried about the well-being or even functioning of the Belgian federal government. Which means that soon they will 'celebrate' the first anniversary of an election that still didn't result in a government. For the Walloons that attitude is a great shock they still not have recovered from after being used to the CD&V which in the end always put governing before defending Flemish interests.

[Loki]

Is that the Nationalist Party candidate?

Google is your friend.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erkki_Tuomioja

[Steely Glint]

Has anyone seen the picture of the main guy from True Finns? Like, is he for real?

[Dreadnaught]

I'm trying to find the party platform of the True Finns...found this and ran it through Google Translate for a jumbled translation.

http://www.perussuomalaiset.fi/arvomaailmamme

It seems like their main point is that the creation of a large bureaucracy has placed decision-making in the hands of a political elite, which in turn has made these politicians reckless and promise things they can't afford. Somehow direct-democracy/populism is the answer...is that what they're saying?

That doesn't strike me as a particularly solid line of reasoning.

[EyeKhan]

I would have expected Nessus to vote ultra-nationalist. You know, just in keeping with historical obsessions and all. (No. Not really )

[Loki]

I'm trying to find the party platform of the True Finns...found this and ran it through Google Translate for a jumbled translation.

http://www.perussuomalaiset.fi/arvomaailmamme

It seems like their main point is that the creation of a large bureaucracy has placed decision-making in the hands of a political elite, which in turn has made these politicians reckless and promise things they can't afford. Somehow direct-democracy/populism is the answer...is that what they're saying?

That doesn't strike me as a particularly solid line of reasoning.

Google is still your friend.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/True_Finns#Policies

[Dreadnaught]

I read that, but I don't trust Wikipedia's summary of an insurgent and controversial right-wing party.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Interestingly we see what happens if a party that is considered 'needed' is not really all that interested in ruling. Like the NVA in Belgium. For the other Flemish parties it would be political suicide to join a federal government that does not include the NVA. The NVA on the other hand is not overly worried about the well-being or even functioning of the Belgian federal government. Which means that soon they will 'celebrate' the first anniversary of an election that still didn't result in a government. For the Walloons that attitude is a great shock they still not have recovered from after being used to the CD&V which in the end always put governing before defending Flemish interests.

So basically we have a party that is, for once, doing as it promised. Not totally throwing it's program overboard -betraying it's voters- in favour of power. Making a compromise is all fine and dandy, but something it's better to not make a compromise, especially if that compromise would only make the mess bigger and not smaller. And that's what Belgian compromises do: make a bigger mess. And that's what NVA doesn't want, nor what belgium needs.
We're still waiting for the compromises the walloons/francophones are willing to make btw, on paper and not in blahblah as they're fond of doing.

[Hazir]

So basically we have a party that is, for once, doing as it promised. Not totally throwing it's program overboard -betraying it's voters- in favour of power. Making a compromise is all fine and dandy, but something it's better to not make a compromise, especially if that compromise would only make the mess bigger and not smaller. And that's what Belgian compromises do: make a bigger mess. And that's what NVA doesn't want, nor what belgium needs.
We're still waiting for the compromises the walloons/francophones are willing to make btw, on paper and not in blahblah as they're fond of doing.

I used to follow the news about the negotiations but I have given up a bit as basically nothing happens.

[Nessus]

I read that, but I don't trust Wikipedia's summary of an insurgent and controversial right-wing party.

They're a nationalist/value conservative economically left-wing party with a small branch of people who are the offspring of Lapuan Liike, the Finnish version of the Nazi Party in the 1930's.

I wish I were joking.

[Nessus]

If you can access this link, you can play around with it yourself. Top is value conservative, bottom liberal, left left and right right (economic). Kokoomus = National Coalition, Perussuomalaiset = True Finns, Sosialidemokraatit = Social Democrats, Keskusta = Centre, Vihreät = Green, and the rest are not very important. "Vaalipiirit" are just electoral districts.

[Steely Glint]

No, that's a map of the known galaxy in B5.

[Dreadnaught]

So they are literally national socialists?

[Nessus]

Buy a Volkswagen yet?

[Hazir]

Buy a Volkswagen yet?

It is common knowledge he's got a Beetle.