Ride of the lolkyries aka. the fate of the Wagner Group

[LittleFuzzy]

The main thing to watch for will be changes at the top of the Russian MOD. There were reports/rumours flying around at the end of yesterday that part of the deal involved giving Shoigu and/or Gerasimov the boot. This was basically one of Prigozhin's demands (the other being 'don't fold Wagner into the regular army', which he did get). So, if that happens it means Putin just caved in, and if he didn't it means the deal was more balanced.

Also, there should probably be some kind of proof of life video of Prigozhin at some point

Oh, I'm certain he's still alive. They want him to tell them who he was expecting support from before they let him retire (though how he expects to avoid assassination six months after that is beyond me)

[Hazir]

Oh, I'm certain he's still alive. They want him to tell them who he was expecting support from before they let him retire (though how he expects to avoid assassination six months after that is beyond me)

The Russian way is to assume everyone is guilty. None of that until proven nonsense either way. Guilty is the default mode, defenestration is a favorite type of execution. Because it terrifies the underlings and it makes court cases that could make the leader seem weak unnecessary.

[Steely Glint]

Oh, I'm certain he's still alive. They want him to tell them who he was expecting support from before they let him retire (though how he expects to avoid assassination six months after that is beyond me)

Since I wrote that, he posted another audiolog, so he's definitely still alive.

Six month is a long time in the current environment, anything could have happened by then.

[Hazir]

Isn't it funny how in Russia rumors can be arrested?

[Aimless]

Rumor has it Surovikin was detained, questioned, and then released (although nobody's saying from what height he was released)

[Steely Glint]

(though how he expects to avoid assassination six months after that is beyond me)

*just a bit under two

Notably, Dmitry Utkin, Wagner founder and commander, was also killed, which would seem to have completely beheaded Wagner.

[LittleFuzzy]

I thought they'd want the attention on his fate to die down a bit more. *shrugs*

[Hazir]

I thought they'd want the attention on his fate to die down a bit more. *shrugs*

Why? An execution this brutal, this openly also serves to intimidate anyone who might have notions of greatness. We will never fully understand Vladimir Putin, but the times when he decides to act like a common drugs lord are the easiest to grasp.

[LittleFuzzy]

They could have been genuinely open, done a show trial and everything, and no one would have batted an eye about that either. I just don't really get pretending and obfuscating but only for two months rather than waiting a bit longer. Unless this was just how long it took to get the info about his quiet backers and undertake the operations against them. In which case I'd suspect they might still have not been as thorough as I would generally expect

[Steely Glint]

Three senior Wagner members (Prigozhin, Utkin and a man called Valery Chekalov who seems to have been their top logistics/admin type person) on a plane at the same time may simply have been too tempting a target to pass up.

[Hazir]

Three senior Wagner members (Prigozhin, Utkin and a man called Valery Chekalov who seems to have been their top logistics/admin type person) on a plane at the same time may simply have been too tempting a target to pass up.

It's not beyond the abilities of Putin to make sure any 3 persons in Russia he wants to be in the same plane, to be in the same plane. I do get the brutality of this execution. What I don't have an explanation for is; what's with the 2 months wait?

Did he need time to make sure some of the assets he wanted for himself wouldn't implode by a sudden disappearance of Prigozhin? Did he need Prigozhin in the preparation of plans in Africa/Niger? Many, many more questions than answers. I guess we'll have to learn that unlike the Soviet Union, Mafia-run Russia has an effective enforcement of omerta.

[BalticSailor]

On a slightly related note, we still don't know anything about the fate of Surovikin.

[Steely Glint]

It's not beyond the abilities of Putin to make sure any 3 persons in Russia he wants to be in the same plane, to be in the same plane.

If he has the power simply to force Wagner leaders to do things (like getting on a plane) then the coup attempt would never have happened in the first place.

[Aimless]

Did they find identifiable bodies bc if not I'm expecting a comeback season after next.

[Hazir]

If he has the power simply to force Wagner leaders to do things (like getting on a plane) then the coup attempt would never have happened in the first place.

You missed the part where the coup failed and Wagner was in a process of being dissolved? Where Prigozhin was concerned, for Putin he was just a caterer who'd gotten into it over his head and who was useful as teaching material.

[Hazir]

Did they find identifiable bodies bc if not I'm expecting a comeback season after next.

They claim they did.