This is how you end up with 46% of teachers wanting a vaccine. Plus the newest GOP message is Covid no longer exists (or at least isn't worth worrying about).Originally Posted by RandBlade
Jeez this is worse than I thought. Though an extremely long interval of dates.
Hope is the denial of reality
Is it too cynical to joke that at least this will help demographically for upcoming elections?
It's mind boggling how the same people who are most vocal about opening everything back, and returning to normal in general, are least inclined to do anything to get to that point.
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
It's all part of the narrative they tell themselves. "Covid isn't really that bad anyway, this is all too much" easily segues into "well, I don't need a vaccine, I don't get flu shots either."
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
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Impressive. Especially considering it takes three weeks for a vaccine to reach full efficacy, then another couple of weeks for a death to occur, and the vaccine rollout hasn't been completed yet five weeks prior to this chart ending.
Will be interesting to see how this CFR death rate continues to decline as time goes on.
The Swedish scientific conversation around covid continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, I was asked if I wanted my first vaccine dose today, but they had to postpone it till friday because half (!!!) of vaccinated personnel have had post-vaccination reactions strong enough to make them stay home for 1-3 days (a few even longer).
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Why? That's inconsistent with what I'm seeing here.
Hope is the denial of reality
Probably cultural fever, tremor, muscle pain and vomiting
All kidding aside, you're absolutely right that it's doesn't match study findings or experiences from other countries. If it isn't influenced by culture and the like, there are other immunological, genetic & epidemiological hypotheses to explore. It would be weird and kinda outrageous if it had anything to do with production issues, and I don't think anyone has been able to connect this to specific batches (one batch may have been more likely to cause an allergic reaction, but it's uncertain).
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
I suspect there's an aggravating psychosomatic factor involved. If everyone you know is having reactions, you're bound to expect and feel a reaction - a bit like man flu.
My wife works in a care home and she was amongst the first to get vaccinated last December, she had no real reaction and very few of her colleagues that booked their own appointment because they were eager to get it had a reaction.
When it was brought into the home to vaccinate the laggard staff and the residents, for the next day or two all the staff who'd avoided the vaccine until then were almost all complaining about reactions (though I don't think anyone went home because of it). The residents with dementia had not much in the way of adverse reactions. The dementia meant they rather forgot they had been vaccinated and it stopped playing in their mind.
The residents without dementia were in between the two. More likely to complain than the dementia residents (when the reverse is normally true), but less likely to complain than the staff.
The UK now has lower case rates than all ten of the highest population EU countries.
Which is even more remarkable when you consider how stunning our test and trace is now and just how many tests are going on here to find these cases.
I thought you had condemned Lewk for treating covid as a league sport.
It is not a league sport it is far more serious than that. I was never against pointing out that eg states in the USA that were refusing lockdowns etc were having higher rates than the high population density states that had been hit hard first.
Lewk was misreading figures that were an accident of geography since he didn't understand the significance of population density etc, then when pointed out he'd dismiss it as if population density was a State's "fault".
That the UK despite having one of the highest population density of all now has lower rates now is not an accident of geography, it is not a coincidence, it is because the UK in 2021 [and in its procurement decisions made in 2020] is handling the pandemic far, far better than our neighbours are because the 4 governments in this country are following different policies that work. Which is why we are defeating the virus, and they are saying lies about catching up with the UK. The grim reality is that lies don't save lives, vaccines do, and the EU have not caught up with the UK that was a pathetic lie. If the EU had really caught up with the UK they'd be eliminating the virus like we are.
The sooner countries in Europe put their arrogance to one side, adopt our methods that work, the sooner this virus can be behind us and lives can be saved.
Some functional steps that can be done to save lives.
- Countries need to fix the procurement mistakes by seeking to purchase vaccines by any means necessary, at any price.
- Holding back vaccine for second doses is absolute insanity. If you have a vaccine dose available, use it. Second doses should come from future supply, not current supply.
- A first dose alone provides 80% protection, two doses give 95% protection. Halt doing second doses until all the vulnerable have had a first dose.
- Face saving should not come before life saving.
For what its worth even if the EU adopt these policies today they'll have lost close to 3 months so will take 3 more months to catch up with the UK. A wasted Quarter that will cost many tens of billions more in cash and tens of thousands of lives more than what they saved by penny pinching on vaccine procurement. But at least they will make progress and possibly quite rapidly. But instead they're still twisting in the wind with spin and lies to save face rather than learn lessons.
Over the past two months, we've had (on average) 1 case of Wernicke encephalopathy per week, where we'd expect to see several weeks or occasionally months between cases. All men in their 50s and 60s, all clearly associated with alcohol abuse, almost all with excellent response to treatment—but all with more severe symptoms at presentation than we usually see. This is a smallish town with a young, healthy, educated and mostly middle-class population, so a streak like this is very unexpected; in the 9 years that I've worked here, I can't recall a single year in which we've seen so many people with this condition in such a short time—not even last spring. Gonna try to see if I can get some info at the regional & national levels, but it's gonna be difficult due to inconsistent coding.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Still talking out of your ass as if your government didn't implement deadly policies—that you supported—leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of people
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Also point 1 is a bit odd since that would go at the expense of other countries (supply us limited), and if I recall correctly he was upset when EU flexed some muscle preventing export of vaccines. Yet now it seems like that's what he wants? Would make sense though considering he applauds the UK getting vaccines produced in the EU to make up for lost production in the UK (threatening repercussions if they don't).
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
You're right, it didn't. There's a deadly pandemic going on so deaths are almost inevitable and no western high population density highly connected nation has escapted unscathed, but vaccinations are the route out and we're doing it.Still talking out of your ass as if your government didn't implement deadly policies—that you supported—leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of people
Supply is limited if there is limited investment. Invest more on producing vaccines sooner and more vaccines can be produced. Trying to steal vaccines bought and paid for by the investment of others is not the same as investing sufficiently yourself.
Splashing the cash to invest in and buy vaccines is different to trying to steal the vaccines others have paid for. The only people who have engaged in conspiracy theories or threatened repercussions is the EU to cover up for the fact that they chose to penny pinch on investing in vaccinations and were boasting that they'd spent months more to negotiate paying less per dose without comprehending the nature of first come, first served.
Penny pinching on vaccinations does not work.
What pathetic spin. In comparison to similar countries, your country is doing uniquely poorly wrt deaths and infections, and a very large proportion of that poor performance can be attributed to deadly—and stupid—decisions that you yourself enthusiastically supported in a breathtaking display of partisan psychosis. You were told what the consequences would be, but you cared more about upholding political spin and saving face—and pretending you knew what you were talking about—than about saving lives. Sad and gross
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Absolutely untrue. On current infections and deaths the UK is doing far better than comparable countries, thanks to wisely not penny pinching on vaccines and not wasting them on second doses or even more gross keeping them in fridges for three weeks then using them on second doses.What pathetic spin. In comparison to similar countries, your country is doing uniquely poorly wrt deaths and infections, and a very large proportion of that poor performance can be attributed to deadly—and stupid—decisions that you yourself enthusiastically supported in a breathtaking display of partisan psychosis. You were told what the consequences would be, but you cared more about upholding political spin and saving face—and pretending you knew what you were talking about
On overall excess deaths its not a league sport, but the UK is doing comparable to other high population density western nations. Despite the Kent Covid variant evolving here when the UK had lower rates and lower excess deaths at the time than other comparable nations.
How do you possibly define the UK as doing uniquely poorly? Or are you not aware that the UK is rather uniquely actually measuring deaths accurately (indeed we're overmeasuring them) when other nations are not?
I think you need to listen to your own story about your friend and the surgeon as you're falling for spin and lies hook, line and sinker.
Lmao you sneaky little fucker
Deaths, hospitalizations, ICU-admissions, and cases per capita, over the course of the pandemic, compared to other similar nations as well as compared to plausible counterfactual scenarios with different policy decisions.How do you possibly define the UK as doing uniquely poorly?
You're not "overmeasuring" deaths.Or are you not aware that the UK is rather uniquely actually measuring deaths accurately (indeed we're overmeasuring them) when other nations are not?
Sadly, the point of the story strongly suggests that your advice re. the story is probably worthlessI think you need to listen to your own story about your friend and the surgeon as you're falling for spin and lies hook, line and sinker.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
You mean there comes a point where the facts are so unequivocal you can't bullshit and lie your way out of them anymore?
But don't worry, the UK fucked this up and the EU has "caught up" with the UK hasn't it? Because that wasn't a complete and utter lie, was it?
Remember my story about my friend and the surgeon
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
There comes a point at which the nonsense becomes too much, too convoluted, and too time-consuming to address.
Judging from discussions within the medical community here in Sweden, we have a massive wave of working-age adults—as well as a not-insignificant number of children and adolescents—with a broad range of more or less severe post-covid issues heading our way. Countries that failed to protect these groups—and esp. countries that implemented policies that actively facilitated infections in these groups—are going to pay for those failures of leadership for a long time to come. I thought at first that this would be an esp. big challenge for my specialty, but we're seeing issues crop up in a variety of specialties, and primary care physicians are absolutely swamped ofc. Our healthcare & social security systems are not equipped to deal with what's coming, as things currently stand; neither are any other country's healthcare & social security systems, tbh.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Eerily Aimless won't say a word about this absolutely tragic, will lead to deaths and has been fed by the lies from EU leaders.
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This is the outcome of having a lack of integrity. What a tragedy.
Especially in France with Macron feeding antivax conspiracy loons dismissing vaccines authorised by the EMA as "ineffective".
Sadly, this discrepancy between confidence in Pfizer's and AZN's vaccines is primarily a consequence of AZN's clumsy trial designs and messy reporting, in combination with pre-existing vaccine skepticism that has been amplified by irresponsible journalism. Nobody outside France cares about Macron's statements, and nobody in France is going to have their already skeptical attitudes to vaccination influenced by Macron. Antivaxx sentiments are spread and fueled by existing groups and networks whose impact is independent of and far greater than whatever some national leader in another country may have said. It should be noted that Macron's statements were criticized by representatives of other EU member states, in Brussels. Do you think antivaxx conspiracy loons would've gotten vaccinated if only Macron hadn't irresponsibly criticized a specific vaccine? Having spent a decade grappling with the Swedish antivaxx movement—and helping to assuage patients' concerns about vaccines—I can say that I don't buy that simplistic view at all.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Seems you don't have a foggiest what you're talking about.
Go on then provide facts and figures to substantiate your preposterous lies. Which countries do you think are comparable to the UK in ways that matter - ie population density, age profile, levels of obesity etc - and please provide the "deaths" figures you're using for them to justify the claim the UK has done "uniquely" badly. Facts and figures please, because it seems you don't understand them.
I think it's best if you first start by explaining your strange position that the UK is "overmeasuring" deaths. That way we can reach a consensus on a key aspect of the comparison, before proceeding. In addition, I think you should first present evidence that any particular population density measure is particularly relevant to the comparison at the population level—and the same for age profile, obesity and "etc". Why should these things be taken into consideration at all, and in what way should we adjust for them? These are important questions to answer before trying to make a meaningful comparison.Seems you don't have a foggiest what you're talking about.
Go on then provide facts and figures to substantiate your preposterous lies. Which countries do you think are comparable to the UK in ways that matter - ie population density, age profile, levels of obesity etc - and please provide the "deaths" figures you're using for them to justify the claim the UK has done "uniquely" badly. Facts and figures please, because it seems you don't understand them.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
In case you were not aware here are some basic facts for you.
- The UK "official" death tally is deaths with Covid, not deaths from Covid. Even if someone tests positive, is asymptomatic or makes a full recovery, then dies of natural causes or from a road traffic collision 27 days later they're still counted as a Covid death. I agree that there's an accurate way to look at real figures and I said excess deaths, which pretty much everyone at the start said was the gold standard. What are you using or preferring instead?
- You want evidence that population density affects viral transmission? Seriously? I refer you back to the past 100 pages of this thread and countless evidence worldwide.
- You want evidence age profile affects mortality? Refer to WHO advice from over a year ago now, the past 100 pages of this thread and countless studies worldwide.
- You want evidence obesity affects mortality? As above though not quite 100 pages but countless studies and concrete evidence known since at least last summer.
So go on then. Do you accept excess deaths as the gold standard or something else you'd rather use instead? And were you unaware UK figures are otherwise "with" and not "from" Covid? Oops that's embarrassing for you.
Or have you got an agenda? Since you claimed deaths were unique you must have had a metric, what is it?
Oh no. Oh mate. Oh you poor fucking idiot. You "read" and regurgitated some confused right-wing dingdong talking points and thought you had a slam dunk, didn't you.
What you're trying to argue here is both stupid and ignorant in several ways. Let me explain.
- The public health agencies in most western nations have compiled pragmatic datasets using the same general approach of tallying deaths within ~30 days of a positive covid test as covid deaths; the UK is not unique in this respect, and it should have no measurable impact on relative ranking. On the contrary, reporting only this figure for international comparisons advantages the UK somewhat, because some countries—such as Belgium—also include suspected—ie. not test-confirmed—covid deaths in their official stats.
- In practice, the "dead within x days of positive test" approach does not result in overcounting covid deaths. There is a good a priori reason for expecting it not to result in overcounting—many people who die of covid or complications thereof have not been tested (esp. for much of the first wave). We can also confirm this by comparing figures obtained from medical cause-of-death certificates that report covid as direct or contributing cause of death. In Sweden, the two sources correspond very closely to one another; in the UK, the latter source gives you a number ~18k higher than the one you get using the definition you use for international comparisons—ie. by using the former for international comparisons, you're doing yourself a favour. Do you believe physicians in the UK have reported 18k road traffic collisions as covid deaths? If anything, estimates based on a simple/naive parsing of death certificates are liable to represent an undercount, due to inconsistencies in how physicians report cause of death, due to inconsistencies wrt testing, and due to the difficulty of correctly attributing cause of death (eg. a person who dies of a pulmonary embolism that was itself a complication of covid might not end up being registered as a covid death).
- Excess deaths is not "the gold standard", and describing it as such demonstrates an extremely simplistic understanding. "The gold standard" for what purpose? Excess deaths is an important and useful public health metric; it allows us to get a fuller picture of overall health impact, and it can help guide us eg. when we have reason to believe we're underdiagnosing deaths due to a pandemic. It does not, however, enable straightforward assessments of a country's performance, or straightforward comparisons between countries. One important reason why is that estimates of excess deaths necessarily obscure differences—and differential shifts—in the underlying causes of death. This is an especially important concern for the present situation, with a devastating global pandemic that has entailed the imposition of many strict restrictions and requirements. Hypothetically, these restrictions and requirements can have a significant mitigating impact on other important causes of death, the impact of which will vary from country to country—eg. fewer deaths due to influenza, bacterial pneumonia, viral gastroenteritis, sepsis, falls among the elderly, traffic accidents, drowning, etc. Conversely, they can also result in more deaths from other causes, due to changes in healthcare provision & utilization—eg. due to delay in seeking care after getting a heart attack—or a stroke—or fewer vaccinations against common and deadly infectious diseases. Sweden provides an illustrative example: in 2020, over 9000 people are believed to have died of covid, in Sweden; nevertheless, we had just over 6000 excess deaths, as estimated by the simplest and most common approach (deaths compared to average for the preceding 5 years)—ie. 3k lower than the official covid death toll. Do you believe we overcounted covid deaths by 3000, by including people who died 27 days after testing positive?
If you still think that's a plausible—rather than asinine—argument, consider that the UK's excess deaths estimate for 2020 is around 10k higher than the official covid death toll that you believe represents an overcount of covid deaths.
- The factors you listed as being relevant for the comparison may indeed be associated with increased risk of transmission as well as death, but the question is whether or not they are relevant for the comparison being discussed, which—at the very least—requires us to determine their importance in quanititative terms as well as whether the countries being compared differ sufficiently in these respects for it to matter. Estimates of the putative impact (ie. effect size) of various measures of population density—as well as of obesity and population age structure—remain very uncertain, and western countries don't differ all that much in these respects anyway; if you adjust for these things, chances are the top five western countries for covid deaths per capita will remain about the same. Of course, it goes without saying that a government is supposed to tailor its policy to the circumstances of its people.
RB, this was really embarrassing for you. I took no pleasure in turning what you thought would be your moment of triumph into another taste of humiliation, and I really wish you'd be a little more thorough and a little less sloppy.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Yeah the irresponsible German lies to Handelsblatt etc then the German government overturning the EMA approving a vaccine for approved for all ages had absolutely no impact.
I know you're having a difficult time in the coalface but you've really gone off the deep end and can't see the wood for the trees now. Probably why you thought the EU had caught up with the UK on vaccines.
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