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Thread: covid-19

  1. #2401
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Click through for thread that will definitely make you happy I would not lie to you

    Wow, who designed that? Because octogenarians and nonogenarians are all tech savvy at uploading copies of ID and answering 51 questions.

    Here doctors are going through the database of patients calling them and giving them an appointment. My wife has her second appointment booked in for the end of February. No faffing about.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #2402
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  3. #2403
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #2404
    A number of regions in Sweden are, stupidly, slow-playing the vaccine rollout, administering only half of the doses they've been given on the basis of an asinine argument about potential supply issues down the line. In other words, tens of thousands of elderly people—and a large number of healthcare workers—will get the vaccine much later than they should, because some planners and directors are too fucking stupid to act like they're dealing with an out-of-control pandemic. Incredibly, this goes against the guidance provided by our much-maligned public health agency, whose representatives have clearly said, on multiple occasions and through multiple channels, that regions should administer all the vaccine doses they've been given as soon as possible, and that there is no justification for hoarding doses in anticipation of supply problems. Nevertheless, the head of the Swedish Association of Local Authorities & Regions has been going on in media about how "unclear" the guidance has been, and requesting unspecified clarification. The only thing that's unclear is why this person can't just pick up a fucking phone or send an email or a text or a Facebook DM or tag the public health agency on Twitter or stand outside their window with a boombox and get the unnecessary answer to whatever stupid question it is they have.

    In other news, some regions have decided to only extract 5 doses from the vials, even though it has been known for a while now that the vials can be used for 6 doses—because the official Swedish info specifies 5 doses. As a result, thousands of doses are likely to be wasted by the time the Swedish authorities update their website to reflect the guidance from EMA. It's not even all regions, so it's not like it's some sort of legal issue—it's just the worst kind of bureaucracy.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  5. #2405
    WTF kind of nonsense is that, we are in a public health emergency. Just get on with it!

    To throw away perfectly good vaccines should be borderline criminal negligence..

    I have a suspicion that a factor in going to the 12 week max scheme rather than the 3 week one was getting rid of the hoarding issue as the same was happening here originally. Hospitals would hoard half the stock to give the second doses in 3 weeks time rather than use it now and using newer stock in 3 weeks time. Switching to 12 gets rid of that incentive at least for a couple of months.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #2406
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I have a suspicion that a factor in going to the 12 week max scheme rather than the 3 week one was getting rid of the hoarding issue as the same was happening here originally. Hospitals would hoard half the stock to give the second doses in 3 weeks time rather than use it now and using newer stock in 3 weeks time. Switching to 12 gets rid of that incentive at least for a couple of months.
    This comes down to a failure of coordination by whoever is supplying the vaccines. If the central government provides clear guidance and commitments about when vaccines should be available and what kind of reserves, if any, are needed, then the local folks who are actually distributing the vaccines will know what to expect. The problem becomes when the central supplier (typically the federal/national government) becomes an unreliable predictor of future supply, in which case localities are left to fend for themselves.

    The Israeli vaccination drive was reportedly going to slow down some in January because of lumpy supply; a pause itself is not unreasonable if you have clear forecasting for your supply (it's not clear if this is the case any longer, they were able to trade EMRs/phase IV trial data for increased supplies). In fact, it's a good thing if you're constrained by vaccine supplies rather than distribution/administration - there's no reason why the rate limiting factor should be distribution. So if supply is your limit, there needs to be clear communication and predictability in supplies. Without that forecasting and trust, you'll get hoarding.

    I do not think that the solution to a hoarding problem is to change dosing schedules with little to no justification; the solution to hoarding is to address the actual problem, namely the trust local authorities have that promised doses will be delivered, on time.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  7. #2407
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post

  8. #2408
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    This comes down to a failure of coordination by whoever is supplying the vaccines. If the central government provides clear guidance and commitments about when vaccines should be available and what kind of reserves, if any, are needed, then the local folks who are actually distributing the vaccines will know what to expect. The problem becomes when the central supplier (typically the federal/national government) becomes an unreliable predictor of future supply, in which case localities are left to fend for themselves.

    The Israeli vaccination drive was reportedly going to slow down some in January because of lumpy supply; a pause itself is not unreasonable if you have clear forecasting for your supply (it's not clear if this is the case any longer, they were able to trade EMRs/phase IV trial data for increased supplies). In fact, it's a good thing if you're constrained by vaccine supplies rather than distribution/administration - there's no reason why the rate limiting factor should be distribution. So if supply is your limit, there needs to be clear communication and predictability in supplies. Without that forecasting and trust, you'll get hoarding.

    I do not think that the solution to a hoarding problem is to change dosing schedules with little to no justification; the solution to hoarding is to address the actual problem, namely the trust local authorities have that promised doses will be delivered, on time.
    You're right to say that supply is the limitation but to my understanding wrong to suggest that central government planning is the bottleneck. Supply itself from the manufacturers themselves is the bottleneck.

    The only way for central government to know how much supply for certain it will have in 3 weeks time is if they are hoarding it today themselves, but they're not hoarding it - as soon as the vaccines are getting certified they're being rolled out.

    Part of the restriction in Pfizer's vaccine to my understanding is that a batch failed certification and was thrown out. Good that it is being rigorously tested, bad for ensuring stable supply. Same could happen again in the future.

    As far as I understand as part of the certification process (at least for AZ) the vaccine gets bottled up then left in a sterile environment for three weeks then the batch is tested to see if any mould has grown on it, if it has that batch needs throwing away. At the end of last year the situation was that there were a million doses certified, 4 million more bottled up awaiting certification, 15 million more manufactured awaiting bottling. So how many would there be available in 3 weeks time (now next week)? A proportion of that 4 million but how many would depend upon the certification process, it can't be guaranteed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  9. #2409
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Unfortunately the way my government is handling this is extraordinary - extraordinarily bad, that is. I don't even know if this means the UK is doing an extraordinarily good job, it just that the rest is mishandling this. Either way, nice job
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  10. #2410
    The US wants those that are administering the vaccine here to stop hoarding the 2nd dosage. Cause that makes sense
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  11. #2411
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You're right to say that supply is the limitation but to my understanding wrong to suggest that central government planning is the bottleneck. Supply itself from the manufacturers themselves is the bottleneck.

    The only way for central government to know how much supply for certain it will have in 3 weeks time is if they are hoarding it today themselves, but they're not hoarding it - as soon as the vaccines are getting certified they're being rolled out.

    Part of the restriction in Pfizer's vaccine to my understanding is that a batch failed certification and was thrown out. Good that it is being rigorously tested, bad for ensuring stable supply. Same could happen again in the future.

    As far as I understand as part of the certification process (at least for AZ) the vaccine gets bottled up then left in a sterile environment for three weeks then the batch is tested to see if any mould has grown on it, if it has that batch needs throwing away. At the end of last year the situation was that there were a million doses certified, 4 million more bottled up awaiting certification, 15 million more manufactured awaiting bottling. So how many would there be available in 3 weeks time (now next week)? A proportion of that 4 million but how many would depend upon the certification process, it can't be guaranteed.
    Yes, the central government should not be using their last dose to give someone dose 1 if they aren't sure they'll be able to provide dose 2. They absolutely should have a reserve in place based on their best estimates of future supply, scrap rates, extant second doses to be administered, etc.

    I wasn't saying that the problem is the limited supply, that's just the circumstance. Appropriate management of distribution, crucially including excellent communication and transparency about their assumptions, is the way to address the hoarding problem. I mean, yes, obviously you could also fix it by magically having infinite supply. But in a constrained supply environment, you address hoarding by assuaging concerns about future supplies, not by either saying 'eh, forget about the dosing schedule' or commanding people to stop hoarding. It's even better if you can have a coordinated plan for managing the 'flow' of vaccinations, with agreed upon targets for first and second doses in each period of time in order to smooth the demand for fundamentally lumpy supply.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  12. #2412
    If you're suggesting the solution to hoarding is centralised hoarding then I completely disagree.

    Getting this out as fast as possible is the humane and right thing to do. Yes, use every last drop if you can.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #2413
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  14. #2414
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    I think the corona debate in Holland is going to reach peak hysteria the following days. Anybody, besides the totally tone deaf, has heard the PM say that we're going to face an actual curfew from next week on. And curfew in the Netherlands leads to a debate that inevitably include the words spertijd or its German equivalent Sperrzeit. At the end of it we probably will have a curfew, hopefully with an allowance for going out with Bella for a last round before bed.
    Congratulations America

  15. #2415
    Hope it does not get too bad, has Holland started vaccinations yet?

    Or are they still saying "its a marathon not a sprint" while facing curfew?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  16. #2416
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    The US jumped 7 spots since you last posted this bullshit in this thread.
    The US is 11th for deaths per million over the past 7 days. Knocking on Germany's door. How long before we break into the top 10?
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  17. #2417
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    If you're suggesting the solution to hoarding is centralised hoarding then I completely disagree.

    Getting this out as fast as possible is the humane and right thing to do. Yes, use every last drop if you can.
    There is a difference between hoarding and planning. For a two dose regimen, you have to make sure you will be able to meet future demand based on expected supply; otherwise you risk compromising your known effective dosing schedule. Hoarding happens because local players have zero control (and likely little transparency) about future supplies, so they are reluctant to give first doses to too many people. Planning is when someone who actually knows something about supplies and has some degree of control over distribution provides guidance about how many doses need to be held back for upcoming second shots, based on future expected supply.

    This is how the world works. We can't just vaccinate willy-nilly without taking into account a constrained supply environment and the need for boosters. That's why everyone came up with distribution plans and prioritization lists in the first place.
    "When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first." - Werner Heisenberg (maybe)

  18. #2418
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Hope it does not get too bad, has Holland started vaccinations yet?

    Or are they still saying "its a marathon not a sprint" while facing curfew?
    It is starting up in phases. By the end of the week 25 vaccination centers will be vaccinating. Then hopefully we'll be able to do some serious catch up.

    The b117 variant scares the shit out of everyone.
    Congratulations America

  19. #2419
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I have a suspicion that a factor in going to the 12 week max scheme rather than the 3 week one was getting rid of the hoarding issue as the same was happening here originally. Hospitals would hoard half the stock to give the second doses in 3 weeks time rather than use it now and using newer stock in 3 weeks time. Switching to 12 gets rid of that incentive at least for a couple of months.
    This seems implausible. If that had been the intention, they could just as well have mandated that all the doses be administered and stated that delaying the second dose by several weeks would be permissible. Would've had a lower risk of unintended consequences.

    Pandemic concerns notwithstanding, there is one understandable reason for holding back the second dose using risk of supply issues as an argument—the risk of chaos arising from not being able to catch up in the event of a disruption to the supply. Regions have to prioritize their oldest residents, and, in much of Sweden, this is logistically very challenging. Building up a vaccine traffic jam, so to speak, would be a huge pain in the ass, with consequences for other parts of the healthcare system.

    The concerns about supply problems are not unfounded—issues with manufacturing led to such problems during the swine flu epidemic, and I understand the regions' sentiment that, until the vaccines are in your freezers, you ain't got jack. However, in the present situation, I believe the regions' focus on this issue is disproportionate. It should be a solvable problem even for the most dysfunctional, overtaxed and sparsely populated region.

    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    For starters, the data in that tweet is inaccurate, and I'm a little surprised David hasn't clarified this. The US, for example, had already found several times that number of the new UK variant, by the time that tweet was sent. In Sweden, at that time, there were probably roughly 20 confirmed cases of that variant; currently, there are 25 confirmed cases, with more likely to be reported as labs catch up after the hols. The numbers denoted in that chart ostensibly denote number of tests that have been sequenced since the first case of the UK variant was reported in that country—not total number of tests sequenced ever. The first case was reported in Sweden on Dec 26th, and most of the subsequent cases in late Dec & early Jan were directly related to UK travel. Moreover, the data don't seem to be taken from any up-to-date official source, but, rather, from media reports.

    I haven't seen any current data on the total number of tests that have been sequenced, but I would be surprised if it were very many, because I don't think it's a high priority in Sweden right now; they're prioritizing regular testing over sequencing, because lab capacity (esp. wrt personnel) is constrained. As the new variant begins to dominate, it's possible they'll use S-gene dropout as a rough proxy measure, but I don't know. The UK's B.1.1.7 outbreak has been building at least since October; if this variant had been spreading in Sweden since then, we would've had several times more hits in sequenced tests—and a similar argument appears to be valid for most countries. So, while I agree that all countries should sequence many more tests than they're currently doing, I can see why they might choose not to, and I don't think I can confidently assert that sequencing more tests can be expected to have a major impact on their policies & priorities at the moment. But it really does restrict our ability to detect and respond to new threats. Sometimes I wonder whether it might not be useful for each EU country to continuously send randomly selected positive tests for sequencing to a small number of high-volume labs eg. in Germany or wherever.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  20. #2420
    According to the data Germany have done only 195 in that timeframe, though I appreciate the starting point for each country may be different hence making a direct comparison with the UK's 88k rather flawed.

    Senting a random sample of your positive tests to the UK for sequencing would seem appropriate. Horses for courses and it seems to be one thing that the expertise is available for.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #2421
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gogobongopop View Post
    surely. This is concerning.

    Unless you're a little Englander and only consider the UK important.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    It's actually the original French billion, which is bi-million, which is a million to the power of 2. We adopted the word, and then they changed it, presumably as revenge for Crecy and Agincourt, and then the treasonous Americans adopted the new French usage and spread it all over the world. And now we have to use it.

    And that's Why I'm Voting Leave.

  22. #2422
    Extraordinary doesn't necessarily mean good. It is an extraordinary stark contrast and it is worth asking why. While being pleased with how the vaccine rollout is happening in this country, it is worth asking questions why things are not going so well elsewhere and others are doing so. This was an interesting point I thought (coincidentally starts off using the same word).

    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  23. #2423
    Talk about a leap there.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  24. #2424
    Why?

    The EU's vaccination procurement scheme has been an unmitigated disaster so far, which has been bubbling under the surface for months (there is a reason the UK chose to stay out) yet it is only now it is beginning to get the attention that it deserves. Which is far too late to change course. The complete absence of genetic surveillance monitoring is another story that gets little attention.

    Had the shoe been on the other foot the media here would have been laying into our government, thus holding it to account, for months now. So would the Leader of the Opposition. If Boris screws something up Starmer and his acolytes are on it as fast as possible, trying to make it as big a story as possible, which puts pressure on Boris not to screw up. People like you are eager to put a magnifying glass on anything tiny that goes wrong in the UK, while ignoring the major problems with the genetic surveillance monitoring and the vaccination procurement and other issues in Europe that nobody until now has paid any attention to.

    Keir Starmer may not be the most interesting person out there but who is the EU's Starmer who is trying to hold it to account, punish it for any failures, and take over running the institution if he can?

    Adversarial politics has something going for it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  25. #2425
    PS this was the story when the UK chose not to join the EU's scheme. It was "unforgivable" according to the Guardian headline: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...vaccine-scheme

    "Ideological dogma" according to the Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9611686.html

    "Stubborn and unforgivable" according to the Lib Dems.

    "Brexit means coronavirus vaccine will be slower to reach the UK" the Guardian again: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-ema-expensive

    The criticism went on and on. It hasn't aged well. But had it been slower to reach the UK you can guarantee that it would have been a major story, which gave every incentive to sort it out fast thus saving potentially thousands of lives rather than waiting and plodding along.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #2426
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Why?

    The EU's vaccination procurement scheme has been an unmitigated disaster so far, which has been bubbling under the surface for months (there is a reason the UK chose to stay out) yet it is only now it is beginning to get the attention that it deserves. Which is far too late to change course. The complete absence of genetic surveillance monitoring is another story that gets little attention.

    Had the shoe been on the other foot the media here would have been laying into our government, thus holding it to account, for months now. So would the Leader of the Opposition. If Boris screws something up Starmer and his acolytes are on it as fast as possible, trying to make it as big a story as possible, which puts pressure on Boris not to screw up. People like you are eager to put a magnifying glass on anything tiny that goes wrong in the UK, while ignoring the major problems with the genetic surveillance monitoring and the vaccination procurement and other issues in Europe that nobody until now has paid any attention to.

    Keir Starmer may not be the most interesting person out there but who is the EU's Starmer who is trying to hold it to account, punish it for any failures, and take over running the institution if he can?

    Adversarial politics has something going for it.
    It's a leap bordering on BS because criticizing policies is not seen as "anti-European", and policies—both good and bad—have been heavily criticized throughout the pandemic. The problems are not the result of a "chilling effect" of some sort of EU political taboo.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  27. #2427
    Fill in the blank.

    In the USA Biden has been holding Trump to account.
    In the UK Starmer has been holding Boris to account.
    In the EU [blank] has been holding von der Leyen to account.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #2428
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Fill in the blank.

    In the USA Biden has been holding Trump to account.
    In the UK Starmer has been holding Boris to account.
    In the EU [blank] has been holding von der Leyen to account.
    This has nothing to do with the claim re. a taboo on criticism, and the purported consequences thereof.
    “Humanity's greatest advances are not in its discoveries, but in how those discoveries are applied to reduce inequity.”
    — Bill Gates

  29. #2429
    OK then if criticism isn't taboo then who has been leading it?

    If you're saying that criticism isn't taboo but nobody can be bothered to criticise then that's a distinction without a meaningful difference. The point is that the criticism has been vocal and consistent in the US and UK, with the results to show for it - and absent in Europe (for whatever reason) with results to show for that too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  30. #2430
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Right, now Lapdog Rand talks of criticism when before he couldn't lick arse fast enough.

    And "criticism has been absent"? Jesus Christ, Rand, you have absolutely no fucking clue and you just proved it once again. You only see what you want to see in that mirror hall of yours.

    Guys, why are we even still taking to this joker here? He's daft beyond belief and moronic in everything else.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

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