Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
Two points about the European elections:

1) There's a good chance the polls we've been seeing will just be complete wrong. Polls use of mathematical models based on past voting behaviour, but there's really never been a situation like this before so those models are going to be useless.
2) Any 'message' you might draw from the result has to take into account the turn out.
If we'd have voters behave like in polls the last decade or two we'd have been under a lunatic fascist government for the better part of this century.