And this from the Breximaniac who quite recently was of the opinion that no deal wasn't a big deal at all?Originally Posted by RandBlade
And this from the Breximaniac who quite recently was of the opinion that no deal wasn't a big deal at all?
Congratulations America
Then she shouldn't have been threatening it vocally at the start [while simultaneously doing zero prep for doing so], she should have been polite and friendly at the start instead.
You don't start negotiations by being belligerent and rude if you are desperate for any deal.
Yeah but I was prepared to walk away, she wasn't.
No I was advising she be serious.
But, as have just pointed out, walking away is not a realistic option.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
She can be as polite and friendly and/or rude and abrasive as she likes, she's still not getting a hard Brexit through parliament.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
If she's not going to why threaten to and in which case why did she start this process shrieking like a banshee, being rude and abrasive to 'citizens of nowhere' and our continental partners she was planning to subsequently beg for any deal from?
If you fire your manager sovereignty's definitely going to come home for sure.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Oh God, this bizarre meltdown of yours is equal parts hilarious and tragic.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
What meltdown?
The one where you criticized Theresa May for not being prepared to walk away, and then criticized her for threatening to walk away, despite failing to address the point that walking away was a political impossibility for her. The reality is she was hamstrung by the fanciful lies told by Leave during the referendum to give the impression that a no-deal Brexit was not a serious possibility.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
That's not a meltdown it's me calling out her hypocrisy and bullshit.
Which part of it do you disagree with?
Well, maybe you should take a closer look at your own hypocrisy and bullshit. Your critique of her strategy makes absolutely no sense. Sure, she shouldn't have mouthed off at the start but what difference you do think that made? The EU was just sitting there with a better deal they were prepared to offer but were withholding because May annoyed them? Not really how these things work.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
The obvious conclusion from this mess is that the Tories are not sufficiently competent to run the country, or even their own affairs.
Too bad the alternative are infinitely worse.
The country is actually well run.
Sure, their ideology differs from yours.
Praise be.The country is actually well run.
There's a man goin' 'round, takin' names
And he decides who to free and who to blame
Massively. They literally want to "overthrow capitalism" and model the UK on Venezuela. Because that's worked so well wherever its been tried.
That will make an interesting* change from the current oligarchy.
I miss having someone I want to vote for.
* for some uncomfortable values of interesting
There's a man goin' 'round, takin' names
And he decides who to free and who to blame
Father Christmas isn't real. It's not TM or the EU's fault that you demand a full stocking on the 25th and BoJo promised you a pony.
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Last edited by Unheard Of; 11-26-2018 at 10:03 PM.
Theresa.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
No its not how these things work but that's also not what I said. I negotiate professionally as part of my job and you need to weigh up your strengths and weaknesses relatively, how much you need them, how much they need you, how much you want, how much you can afford and go into negotiations accordingly. Rule #1 though is don't antagonise those you're negotiating with. Its dumb, dumb, dumb. Her deal is as dead as a dodo, it will not pass Parliament and it didn't need to come to this. The backstop that has completely screwed up negotiations for the past year wasn't even part of the EU's original proposals! It only came into play after she'd spent months antagonising them and refusing to talk.
It's very easy to have hindsight but here's a post I wrote for another site on the subject of how May has screwed up negotiations. Note that it was in reply to the someone quoting mockingly the claim from some leavers that "we hold the cards" before the referendum and I had said that we did hold cards but May threw them away. Hence its all card-based analogy.Good question. Others are laughing without thinking but you've asked the good question.Which Aces were those?
Ace of Hearts: This was our choice.
May has acted afraid and recalcitrant, like she's worried but 'doing her duty' in doing what the voters said, instead of doing what she wanted. This makes it very easy for the EU to threaten negative consequences and get her to back down as a result. For someone who campaigned for this to happen the idea of threatening consequences would have been dismissed as "we know that, we chose it".
Ace of Diamonds: Money, money, money
Unlike Greece which desperately needed money from the ECB to keep their banks open and pay the bills, the EU wants our money.
Ace of Spades: First mover.
The vote caught the EU off guard, the genuinely weren't expecting we'd actually do it, and following that they waited for us to propose our solutions. We didn't do so. We waited, stalled and May chose to 'keep her cards close to her chest' until belatedly the Commission got fed up and came up with their own proposals which then have become the outcome. Had May come up with a fleshed our proposal like Chequers when she invoked Article 50 that would have set the groundwork to build on, instead of chucking away that opportunity and waiting for the Commission to do her work for her.
Ace of Clubs: Parliament.
[Another user there] suggested that a 'real Brexiteer' being able to command support in Parliament better was a 'flying unicorn' but of course that would have happened. Parliament was top ace for May. The Tories had an overall majority in Parliament and an opposition led by Jeremy Corbyn who was no confidenced by almost all his own MPs but clung on. She chucked away an overall majority, a 20+ point lead in the polls, a divided opposition and an opposition leader who wasn't taken seriously by calling an election then failing to turn up to the debates or win a majority.
You never held any other card than that we wanted to limit the damage done to us by your idiocy. It wasn't a particularly strong card anyway because we knew that you would be hurt much more than we and you were not only unprepared but also not able to ready yourself for a no-deal exit. You on the other hand thought that it would be as easy as retracting your membership through national legislation alone.
You have been so consistently wrong about the way that Brexit would go that it almost would suffice to say 'See what he wrote? That's how it is not going to be.'
Theresa or anyone doing the exit talks singing from your hymn sheet could not have gotten a better deal. Worse would have been very likely.
I also regularly negotiate, and have had intensive training to do so. Which is reason why I am able to see that the withdrawal agreement is not the result of a regular negotiation. For the simple reason that a negotiation without a deal leaves you with the status quo. No Brexit deal on the other hand means a hard reset to an unknown new situation. That means ; its not really a negotiation at all. So all you think you know is non-applicable
Congratulations America
No, they couldn't, especially if the leader was one of the Brexiters who was making a lot of noise during the referendum because they'd still have to stick to the line they gave out during the referendum: that Brexit would have no serious consequences, that doing a deal with the EU would be easy because something something German car manufacturers. This is a big part of the reason May has been allowed to remain leader. If someone like Johnson tried this approach, everyone would be, like, "you said it would never come to this, what the fuck Boris".
This is the only one of these that is actually any kind of card that we hold.Ace of Diamonds: Money, money, money
Unlike Greece which desperately needed money from the ECB to keep their banks open and pay the bills, the EU wants our money.
We weren't expecting we'd do it either, no one was expecting leave to win. So the reason she didn't immediately make proposals was that they didn't exist yet. This is also true of Brexiters who have never had anything more than a lot of bombast and false confidence and a few vague ideas.Ace of Spades: First mover.
The vote caught the EU off guard, the genuinely weren't expecting we'd actually do it, and following that they waited for us to propose our solutions. We didn't do so. We waited, stalled and May chose to 'keep her cards close to her chest' until belatedly the Commission got fed up and came up with their own proposals which then have become the outcome. Had May come up with a fleshed our proposal like Chequers when she invoked Article 50 that would have set the groundwork to build on, instead of chucking away that opportunity and waiting for the Commission to do her work for her.
I don't really see how this is is some kind of 'ace'. It's nicer for the EU to deal with someone who's going to be able to pretty confidently say that whatever deal is agreed at the end is going to be ratified, but she's hardly going to be able to say "you'd better give me what I want or parliament will agree to everything I say" is she? If anything, being able to say "I need this concession or this won't get through parliament" might be in her favor.Ace of Clubs: Parliament.
[Another user there] suggested that a 'real Brexiteer' being able to command support in Parliament better was a 'flying unicorn' but of course that would have happened. Parliament was top ace for May. The Tories had an overall majority in Parliament and an opposition led by Jeremy Corbyn who was no confidenced by almost all his own MPs but clung on. She chucked away an overall majority, a 20+ point lead in the polls, a divided opposition and an opposition leader who wasn't taken seriously by calling an election then failing to turn up to the debates or win a majority.
Also, her majority was small - I think it was 8 or 12 or something? - before the 2017 election, and given the scale of opposition amongst Tories to this proposal even if she hadn't called the election she would still be struggling to get this deal through parliament.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Anyway, May's deal is as dead as a dodo. It will not pass Parliament, it will not be close. Which is going to make it all the more embarrassing. Had it been close then the presure on moderate Tory potential rebels and moderate Labour potential rebels to back the deal would have been immense. Even some Lib Dems had hinted they would back the deal. But its not close, they all know its going to fail, so MPs are free to virtue signal and oppose without being the one who left Britain without a deal. It's going to be a humiliating rejection. I doubt even one Labour MP or one Lib Dem will back the deal. DUP oppose it. SNP and assorted others will oppose it. Potential Tory rebels number upto 100. The deal is history. 2 years of negotiations up in smoke, Barnier and May I hope you're proud of yourselves.
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Or will it be up in smoke? The key issue, as it has been for the past 12 months has been the backstop. Without the backstop, the deal would pass. Begrudgingly for many, but enough would back it. Until now the EU have won every battle in these negotiations because they knew May would fold, on that Hazir and I are fully agreed. May is weak and impotent and useless. I'm surprised how powerful Parliament's rejection of it is though. I assumed Parliament would be desperate for any deal and for this to be over so would agree to any deal. Had it been better managed I think they would, but enough are against this that there's no chance.
So the EU face a dilemma. Ireland face a dilemma. Parliament can't and won't agree to the backstop, but the UK has conceded on 99% of other issues. Does Ireland back down over the backstop (probably with a face-saving backstop 2.0 that is moot and meaningless) and thus get the deal passed . . . or do they risk no deal actually happens, the last 2 years of successful negotiations going up in smoke and the potential immediate implementation of the hard border they've tried to avoid, affecting the 45% of Irish agricultural exports than end up in the UK and the 80% of overall Irish exports that use the UK as a land bridge?
I think sanity will save the day and the backstop dies. As it should. If I were a Tory MP I'd vote Nay to this deal but Aye to this deal minus the backstop.
Absolutely not the case that a negotiation without a deal leaves you with the status quo. One negotiation I was involved in (but didn't lead) was following the Council announcing a compulsory purchase order on a building we owned and operated a business from. The Council were going to [and subsequently have] bulldoze that quarter of the town centre for redevelopment so all businesses in that portion of town needed to be cleared. First step is to negotiate a sale with the Council, if that fails it goes to court. Either way the status quo was no longer an option the second the decision was made to bulldoze that area. That decision to bulldoze town and redevelop it was akin to the Brexit referendum and the formal notification and start of negotiations was akin to Article 50.
What you described is not a negotiation.
Congratulations America
Yes it was. We had proposals go back and forth and ended up with an agreement that satisfied both parties, that was nothing like their original proposal. That is a negotiation.
And if you hadn't agreed another branch of government would have set fair compensation. End of story.
Congratulations America
Wait, so you had a negotiation which had a result?
You know what's that called? "A deal".
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Yes and their definition of fair compensation would not have been what we negotiated. It would have been far closer to the Councils original proposal to us.
Still not a negotiation; out of court settlement. If the asked price would have exceeded the costs of a court case plus fair compensation you’d have been in court.
Your room for manoeuvre was strictly deliniated by their rules.
The only thing you are right about is that it resembles the Brexit talks.
Congratulations America
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