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Thread: Arizona Gov Proposes Fat Tax For Welfare Recipients

  1. #181
    How to Retire on $60,000 a Year

    If you're a middle income family, you might be wondering how much money you're going to need to retire. Let's take a look at a 66-year-old couple that's been earning $60,000 a year and see what the numbers tell us.

    That means to produce $33,000 of inflation-adjusted distributions, you would need somewhere between $660,000 and $825,000 in retirement savings.

    • A 5% distribution on $660,000 gets you $33,000, and a 4% distribution on $825,000 gets you $33,000.

    Now that might seem like a lot of money, but it's about right. And the main reason you need so much is because of inflation. If inflation runs at 3% for the next 25 years, your initial distribution would need to grow from $33,000 to about $66,0000. Well, if you're taking out $66,000 a year, you can see that even a $660,000 portfolio probably won't last too long.

    If you don't think Social Security will be around, then take Social Security out of your calculations and run the estimates just based off your savings. Now you'll see why Social Security is so important. Without it, you'd need somewhere between $1.2 million and $1.5 million just to produce $60,000 of retirement income.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retir...anaging_wealth


    This should be in the retirement thread Some flaws in this model but the gist is clear. The less a person earns, the harder it is to save enough for retirement. Making $30,000/yr and saving up $600-800,000 to maintain 30K/yr in retirement (excluding SS)...that's 20 + years of full income saved instead of spent. Fingers crossed on that 4% return with 3% inflation.

    But surely it's because people are stupid, lazy and undisciplined. Right, Lewk?

  2. #182
    Quote Originally Posted by oldmunchkin View Post
    And when a major medical crisis occurs, wiping out any savings they had, that makes them irresponsible? My parents had a nice savings when they "retired"*. That effectively dropped to nothing when Dad got sick. And he didn't have to pay the majority of the medical bills! I pity the elderly who aren't veterans, because they get fucked when it comes to retirement and failing health!

    My parents are pretty much a good indicator of many retirees. They saved all their lives, they thought they could retire in relative comfort...not a mansion but not a fucking dump either! Part of it stems from rising costs, no cost of living increases in SS, and living longer in general.

    Here is a question for you Lewk! What do you think these people should have done to have saved more? Quit eating? As long as I can remember, my parents saved no less than 10% of their yearly income, and had a reasonably healthy savings account. Of course, there were years that their total yearly income was $6000! No, that is NOT a typo! Yes, they are/were different than the 9 to 5'ers, they were ranchers. Yes, ranching is basically gambling to make a living! It always has been, it always will be. Lucky for Mom, Dad always paid into SS for her, even tho she wasn't an "employee" but an equal partner in the operation. If not for that, Mom would be living on a hell of a lot less than she is now! You do know she is still working? At 84? And it's not for fun either. The VA denied her a portion of Dad's benefits, so she tries to exist on her SS and her peanuts-pay job. At least she has that!

    EDIT: Ooops, I forgot the " *" . My parents didn't have a 401K or any of that stuff. They also didn't have an employer retirement package. They did sell their living, the ranch, and banked the profits after buying a house. After Dad's first health crisis, the savings started going down, with no money coming in to replenish it!
    Meh, there are exceptions to every rule. In aggregate lack of sufficient retirement savings is based on people spending money on stuff. Buying too much car/house for their income. Buying the latest gadgets, cell phones, TVs, stereo systems ect. Choosing to go on vacations on a credit card instead of saving. Spending money on lottery tickets, using pay day advance services and the like. Are there some genuine hard luck cases? Sure. But take a careful look around and you will see people spending huge amounts of money on self indulgent stuff rather then save for retirement. I see this with my family, friends, co workers and tons of other people.

  3. #183
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retir...anaging_wealth


    This should be in the retirement thread Some flaws in this model but the gist is clear. The less a person earns, the harder it is to save enough for retirement. Making $30,000/yr and saving up $600-800,000 to maintain 30K/yr in retirement (excluding SS)...that's 20 + years of full income saved instead of spent. Fingers crossed on that 4% return with 3% inflation.

    But surely it's because people are stupid, lazy and undisciplined. Right, Lewk?
    And based off this retirement calculator that is very doable.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/personal-fi...rs/retirement/

    Assume you start at 25, retire at 67, 6,000 contributed to retirement per year, 8% annual return (historically accurate over a 42 year period) and you will have 1.8 million dollars.

  4. #184
    8% return? I didn't click your link, but if it has an employer-matching 401k contributions, not many making $30,000 have that perk. Do the math as a self-employed or those with multiple part time jobs, and assume SS is gone....

  5. #185
    after inflation thats worth around 3/4 of a million by the time you need it.
    but fuck, even the calc you used doesn't default to 8%
    Last edited by Ominous Gamer; 04-20-2011 at 03:44 PM.
    "In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."

  6. #186
    Ah yes, exceptions to every rule, in aggregate, or on average. Using Lewk's prior metric of $50K as middle-class/middle income leaves huge gaping holes. Too many to ignore. Individual or couple, family with children, location and COL, type of job, etc.

    I used individual making $30K to illustrate that people can work quite hard for 40 yrs or more, save 10% ($3K) annually, and still end up struggling. Not because they're taking fancy cruises or buying a Cadillac every year, but because it's pretty tough to live on $27K/yr.

  7. #187
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Dude, seriously, pay attention already.



    I also think it's insane that you're gladly embracing a definition of "middle class" that encompasses people are are just one illness away from being dirt poor. Clearly the American middle class are lagging behind the rest of the world in several important ways
    Define "major life event." Because it seems to me that it includes 'market crash" which can of course leave quite a rich person with all his assets wiped out. Ditto for a fund manager thrown out on his ass for getting suckered by Madoff's fraud. A long term condition can overwhelm someone in the top 10% easily enough. Everyone is just one step from being dirt poor since that "step" was left so amorphous.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  8. #188
    "Major life event" can mean unemployment lasting longer than two years, chronic underemployment, a market crash and Great Recession, a diagnosis of an expensive disease (cancer, MS, Parkinson's, Alzheimers, renal failure, spinal cord injury, brain trauma, very ill children, etc), being uninsured/underinsured, owning underwater homes.....

  9. #189
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Will this be your pet answer for everything now? It's all about those stupid, lazy, undisciplined people?
    You act as if Lewk hasn't been spouting this for years, and when his delusions are shown to be not as clear cut as that, he always goes:
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Meh, there are exceptions to every rule
    Same with his 1 dimensional view of Liberals, atheists, muslims, anything that's not in his immediate surroundings. You can't break through his selective perception and he can't draw from experience which would tell him otherwise. Of course, the same rules stop being true when we for instance correlate intelligence and religiousness. Then he does seem to understand the importance of not painting such a diverse group with one brush. Reason is simple. He is religious. He is not poor. He is capable of empathy but limited in range so to speak.

    This would all be not so much of a problem if he just got "then/than" right and used the quote buttons For that he's going to a special place in hell where there are no paragraphs.
    I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
    I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
    Which is what I am

    I aim at the stars
    But sometimes I hit London

  10. #190
    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
    You act as if Lewk hasn't been spouting this for years, and when his delusions are shown to be not as clear cut as that, he always goes:
    He can still be engaged in discussion, and asked for proof or synthesis of his ideas.


    Same with his 1 dimensional view of Liberals, atheists, muslims, anything that's not in his immediate surroundings. You can't break through his selective perception and he can't draw from experience which would tell him otherwise. Of course, the same rules stop being true when we for instance correlate intelligence and religiousness. Then he does seem to understand the importance of not painting such a diverse group with one brush. Reason is simple. He is religious. He is not poor. He is capable of empathy but limited in range so to speak.
    He's still a poster here, and does engage in some back-and-forth discussion. Being religious shouldn't be a Scarlet Letter.

    This would all be not so much of a problem if he just got "then/than" right and used the quote buttons For that he's going to a special place in hell where there are no paragraphs.
    Hey, he does use the quote function now, so give him a 'lil break! I've given up on the than/then though....

  11. #191
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    8% return? I didn't click your link, but if it has an employer-matching 401k contributions, not many making $30,000 have that perk. Do the math as a self-employed or those with multiple part time jobs, and assume SS is gone....
    8% is actually below the historical average. I know its difficult to get past the recent past but why are you assuming everything has changed? You pick one of the worst decades and ignore the last 80 years of history. Incredibly short sighted.

  12. #192
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    8% is actually below the historical average. I know its difficult to get past the recent past but why are you assuming everything has changed? You pick one of the worst decades and ignore the last 80 years of history. Incredibly short sighted.
    Millions of people have retired in "the recent past", after having lived through other decades. This decade was quite bad for them, and they don't have future decades ahead of them like you might. Why you can't acknowledge that is incredibly naive and cold-hearted.

  13. #193
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Millions of people have retired in "the recent past", after having lived through other decades. This decade was quite bad for them, and they don't have future decades ahead of them like you might. Why you can't acknowledge that is incredibly naive and cold-hearted.
    At what point in life will you ever actually place blame on an individual?

  14. #194
    Is their a post-natal point where you don't?

    Whey-oo
    In the future, the Berlin wall will be a mile high, and made of steel. You too will be made to crawl, to lick children's blood from jackboots. There will be no creativity, only productivity. Instead of love there will be fear and distrust, instead of surrender there will be submission. Contact will be replaced with isolation, and joy with shame. Hope will cease to exist as a concept. The Earth will be covered with steel and concrete. There will be an electronic policeman in every head. Your children will be born in chains, live only to serve, and die in anguish and ignorance.
    The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference.

  15. #195
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    At what point in life will you ever actually place blame on an individual?
    When people can truly "save" for retirement (compound interest on deposits), without being forced to gamble in the rigged Wall Street/Finance lottery just to keep up with inflation.

  16. #196
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    At what point in life will you ever actually place blame on an individual?
    An individual? Like liberals?
    I could have had class. I could have been a contender.
    I could have been somebody. Instead of a bum
    Which is what I am

    I aim at the stars
    But sometimes I hit London

  17. #197
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    When people can truly "save" for retirement (compound interest on deposits), without being forced to gamble in the rigged Wall Street/Finance lottery just to keep up with inflation.
    The stock market is not a lottery but there is no convincing you of that is there? No amount of empirical evidence that most long term investors enjoy terrific returns on their investments will convince you will it?

    That being said bonds can be used to save for retirement and they would typically have a higher return then inflation. Of course your long term returns will be smaller then stocks but hey if you dislike the idea of having partial ownership of companies this might be a better route for you.

    I'm a big fan of having a lower inflation rate then 3% as well but that really is a seperate discussion.

  18. #198
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    The stock market is not a lottery but there is no convincing you of that is there? No amount of empirical evidence that most long term investors enjoy terrific returns on their investments will convince you will it?
    It didn't start out as a lottery, but it's becoming that way. Fundamentals and Technicals? Buy and Hold? It really has become more of a gambling game, high risk and volatility, retail investors ham strung by big movers and shakers (market makers), speculators, hedge funds, funds of funds, math quants, HFT, long tails....derivatives and CDOs, splicing and dicing....deregulations and nobody minding the shop. SEC poorly funded and understaffed, watching porn instead of bad actors. We've been through all this in other threads.

    I've been a long term investor for decades, and have "enjoyed terrific returns" at various times. But I'm not stupid enough to give carte blanche trust to the Freee Markets you seem to idolize. They're manipulated markets now. Unfortunately, most everyone's retirement is "invested" somehow. State pension plans, 401-Ks, IRAs, municipal bonds, etc. That's why the Big Bank Bail-out was necessary.....to keep the dominoes from falling and wiping out Main Street. All ur money R belong to us!

    No amount of empirical evidence will convince you of that?

    I think it's a national shame there isn't a place for super-conservative self-savers to slowly build their own nest egg, by simple compound interest deposit accounts. Paying 5-6% interest on deposits would mean charging more for borrowers, less in fees and cuts for banks and financial firms. We all know ours is a borrowing/lending system that runs on debt. Cheap debt. And it benefits the lenders most. How we doin'?


  19. #199
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    It didn't start out as a lottery, but it's becoming that way. Fundamentals and Technicals? Buy and Hold? It really has become more of a gambling game, high risk and volatility, retail investors ham strung by big movers and shakers (market makers), speculators, hedge funds, funds of funds, math quants, HFT, long tails....derivatives and CDOs, splicing and dicing....deregulations and nobody minding the shop. SEC poorly funded and understaffed, watching porn instead of bad actors. We've been through all this in other threads.

    Do you even know what half of those terms mean? In any event people tend to work at least 40 years. Last time I checked 40 years in the stock market has beat out practically every other asset class out there.

    As far as having a risk free return of five or 6 percent that is pretty dang absurd. You might get that in periods of high inflation but that doesn't solve your dilemma either does it? If you want higher returns you must take some risk. No free lunches.

  20. #200
    Why, don't you know what 'those terms' mean?

    Let's see....you say 8% return is below historical average for the stock market, but 5% compound interest is absurd. And you post in the stock market thread about the dangers of investing and losing, but deny it's like gambling.

    When banks or S & L would originate and hold mortgages, they could charge 10-18% for home loans and pay 5-6% on deposits. They still made profit on fees and the spread between deposits and loans, but they wanted more. Yes, those were high rates for a mortgage, but it kept home prices stable and there wasn't speculative flipping that went viral. Growing homeownership (to anyone with a pulse) became the goal; Bush, congress and Greenspan creating our housing bubble, banks and financials loving deregulation and those "WMD" in mortgage derivatives that blew up. Shocked, shocked they were.

  21. #201
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Why, don't you know what 'those terms' mean?

    Let's see....you say 8% return is below historical average for the stock market, but 5% compound interest is absurd. And you post in the stock market thread about the dangers of investing and losing, but deny it's like gambling.

    When banks or S & L would originate and hold mortgages, they could charge 10-18% for home loans and pay 5-6% on deposits. They still made profit on fees and the spread between deposits and loans, but they wanted more. Yes, those were high rates for a mortgage, but it kept home prices stable and there wasn't speculative flipping that went viral. Growing homeownership (to anyone with a pulse) became the goal; Bush, congress and Greenspan creating our housing bubble, banks and financials loving deregulation and those "WMD" in mortgage derivatives that blew up. Shocked, shocked they were.
    Boggle. So because banks wanted more... mortgage rates plummeted? You aren't making a bit of sense. Those rates were high because the Fed was fighting inflation. What do you think the rate of inflation will be at if we have FDIC insured deposit rates of 5-6%? There is a relationship between risk and reward. No risk = little reward.

  22. #202
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    As far as having a risk free return of five or 6 percent that is pretty dang absurd. You might get that in periods of high inflation but that doesn't solve your dilemma either does it? If you want higher returns you must take some risk. No free lunches.
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Boggle. So because banks wanted more... mortgage rates plummeted? You aren't making a bit of sense. Those rates were high because the Fed was fighting inflation. What do you think the rate of inflation will be at if we have FDIC insured deposit rates of 5-6%? There is a relationship between risk and reward. No risk = little reward.
    What's boggling is you saying it's absurd to return to more sane savings incentives, then complain that people don't save enough. Yes, there was high inflation in the 70s/80s and the Fed (Volcker) raised rates charged to banks to double digits. Banks weren't leveraged 30:1 then, and the derivative market hadn't gone hog wild in the mortgage market yet, either.

    What's boggling is you wanting it both ways---high returns with high risk and volatility in the stock market---with no relative safety and incentives for FDIC deposits, for conservative savers that don't want to play the lottery. You agree home loans shouldn't have been handed out like candy, but won't admit current rates are artificially low.

    You don't seem to mind that the Fed is propping up Big Banks with essentially "interest and risk free money", Fannie/Freddie is propping up the mortgage market because banks won't buy and hold them, policy to benefit more debt or cheap money

    all the while harming killing the retail saver.

    2% interest on deposits isn't enough to keep up with low inflation. But yeah, those poor people should save more.

  23. #203
    Back on topic. Welfare recipients, and obesity due to their diets. Proposing a Fat Tax is the ultimate in stupidity. Today's charitable food pantry is getting much less from the gummint by way of milk or cheese, even though demand is way up. Odd, because dairy farmers get subsidies and gov't buys their surplus. Almost everything we gave today was a carbohydrate or had added sugar or HFCS, or was processed:

    Sweetened oat rings cereal, apple juice with just 10% fruit, sweetened apple sauce, canned mixed fruit in heavy syrup, condensed noodle soups, processed spaghetti sauce in a can, box of macaroni and (fake powdered) cheese. Rice and spaghetti noodles. Canned white potatoes. Sugar added peanut butter. Meats= 5 oz. can of tuna or chicken packed in oil, Treet (generic Spam), and one small frozen whole chicken. Veggies=canned beans, peas, and corn. One carton of liquid 2% milk.

    That's it, for a family of 3, for one month. Distribution is by zoned areas, so people are limited to one pantry per month. We're fortunate enough to have Panera Bread donate day-old whole grain breads and bagels, and people bring things from their gardens (today=rhubarb).

  24. #204
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    I'm making the point that the poor tend to be the unhealthy eaters. As they make poor choices in their financial lives they also make poor choices when it comes to their bodies. And since liberals always look at things from the lens of "the poor" they will immediately says this incentive favors the rich since they tend to be healthier.
    Quote Originally Posted by Lewkowski View Post
    Oh please do we need to go back to the poor thread about what that group of folks on average does with their money? RAL, lottery tickets and pay day loans?
    There is a reason that poor people are more obese then rich people. And if you think it is only the price difference with healthy foods you are remarkably naive.
    This one is for Lewk:

    If the gains are so obvious, why don't the poor eat better? Eating well doesn't have to be prohibitively expensive. Most mothers could surely afford iodized salt, which is now standard in many parts of the world, or one dose of iodine every two years (at 51 cents per dose). Poor households could easily get a lot more calories and other nutrients by spending less on expensive grains (like rice and wheat), sugar, and processed foods, and more on leafy vegetables and coarse grains. But in Kenya, when the NGO that was running the deworming program asked parents in some schools to pay a few cents for deworming their children, almost all refused, thus depriving their children of hundreds of dollars of extra earnings over their lifetime.

    Why? And why did anemic Indonesian workers not buy iron-fortified fish sauce on their own? One answer is that they don't believe it will matter -- their employers may not realize that they are more productive now. (In fact, in Indonesia, earnings improved only for the self-employed workers.) But this does not explain why all pregnant women in India aren't using only iodine-fortified salt, which is now available in every village. Another possibility is that people may not realize the value of feeding themselves and their children better -- not everyone has the right information, even in the United States. Moreover, people tend to be suspicious of outsiders who tell them that they should change their diet. When rice prices went up sharply in 1966 and 1967, the chief minister of West Bengal suggested that eating less rice and more vegetables would be both good for people's health and easier on their budgets. This set off a flurry of outrage, and the chief minister was greeted by protesters bearing garlands of vegetables wherever he went.

    It is simply not very easy to learn about the value of many of these nutrients based on personal experience. Iodine might make your children smarter, but the difference is not huge, and in most cases you will not find out either way for many years. Iron, even if it makes people stronger, does not suddenly turn you into a superhero. The $40 extra a year the self-employed man earned may not even have been apparent to him, given the many ups and downs of his weekly income.

    So it shouldn't surprise us that the poor choose their foods not mainly for their cheap prices and nutritional value, but for how good they taste. George Orwell, in his masterful description of the life of poor British workers in The Road to Wigan Pier, observes:

    The basis of their diet, therefore, is white bread and margarine, corned beef, sugared tea and potatoes -- an appalling diet. Would it not be better if they spent more money on wholesome things like oranges and wholemeal bread or if they even, like the writer of the letter to the New Statesman, saved on fuel and ate their carrots raw? Yes, it would, but the point is that no ordinary human being is ever going to do such a thing. The ordinary human being would sooner starve than live on brown bread and raw carrots. And the peculiar evil is this, that the less money you have, the less inclined you feel to spend it on wholesome food. A millionaire may enjoy breakfasting off orange juice and Ryvita biscuits; an unemployed man doesn't.… When you are unemployed … you don't want to eat dull wholesome food. You want something a little bit "tasty." There is always some cheaply pleasant thing to tempt you.

    The poor often resist the wonderful plans we think up for them because they do not share our faith that those plans work, or work as well as we claim. We shouldn't forget, too, that other things may be more important in their lives than food. Poor people in the developing world spend large amounts on weddings, dowries, and christenings. Part of the reason is probably that they don't want to lose face, when the social custom is to spend a lot on those occasions. In South Africa, poor families often spend so lavishly on funerals that they skimp on food for months afterward.

    And don't underestimate the power of factors like boredom. Life can be quite dull in a village. There is no movie theater, no concert hall. And not a lot of work, either. In rural Morocco, Oucha Mbarbk and his two neighbors told us they had worked about 70 days in agriculture and about 30 days in construction that year. Otherwise, they took care of their cattle and waited for jobs to materialize. All three men lived in small houses without water or sanitation. They struggled to find enough money to give their children a good education. But they each had a television, a parabolic antenna, a DVD player, and a cell phone.

    This is something that Orwell captured as well, when he described how poor families survived the Depression:

    Instead of raging against their destiny they have made things tolerable by reducing their standards.

    But they don't necessarily lower their standards by cutting out luxuries and concentrating on necessities; more often it is the other way around -- the more natural way, if you come to think of it. Hence the fact that in a decade of unparalleled depression, the consumption of all cheap luxuries has increased.


    These "indulgences" are not the impulsive purchases of people who are not thinking hard about what they are doing. Oucha Mbarbk did not buy his TV on credit -- he saved up over many months to scrape enough money together, just as the mother in India starts saving for her young daughter's wedding by buying a small piece of jewelry here and a stainless-steel bucket there.

    We often see the world of the poor as a land of missed opportunities and wonder why they don't invest in what would really make their lives better. But the poor may well be more skeptical about supposed opportunities and the possibility of any radical change in their lives. They often behave as if they think that any change that is significant enough to be worth sacrificing for will simply take too long. This could explain why they focus on the here and now, on living their lives as pleasantly as possible and celebrating when occasion demands it.

    We asked Oucha Mbarbk what he would do if he had more money. He said he would buy more food. Then we asked him what he would do if he had even more money. He said he would buy better-tasting food. We were starting to feel very bad for him and his family, when we noticed the TV and other high-tech gadgets. Why had he bought all these things if he felt the family did not have enough to eat? He laughed, and said, "Oh, but television is more important than food!"

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