"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
That's what the analysis before the referendum said. You know, the one that said that we'd be in a recession by now.Originally Posted by Aimless
This is the government's analysis that it does not want to make public out of embarrassment. It shows the government's best estimate right now. If forecasts are as good as looking at entrails, why is the government wasting limited resources on them?
You know as well as I do that the forecasts are conditional and, so long as the conditions are not met, they are not applicable. They do however give an indication of beliefs about reality. Even when they aren't accurate, they can suggest the magnitude of the effect of a particular decision, and the direction of travel.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
OH, you mean those based on the lie that article 50 would be triggered the day after the referendum? You know, that's the problem with forecasting; if politicians do not even attempt to look as if they're saying the truth it becomes very hard to tell what the likely outcome of their actions will be.
But this time it's not politicians talking, it's your Civil Service crunching the numbers. And coming to the conclusion that this whole Brexit nonsense is going to cost you between 50bn and 200bn a year. And given that your PM is still talking nonsense about deals we won't talk about it seems very likely that it's gonna be a whole lot closer to the latter figure.
Last edited by Hazir; 01-30-2018 at 09:24 PM.
Congratulations America
Indeed they are stabs in the dark with major caveats and margins of error, hence the caveats quoted at the bottom of the article.
Which is somehow worse than making things up using numbers pulled directly out of one's ass or trying to avoid the question entirely
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Brextremism has a breath taking ability to eat its own children; yesterday Fox and Davis were solidly anti-EU and today they're painted as toadies of the EU. I wonder what a brush up with reality will do to the newest 'anti-establishment hero' Rees-Mogg.Which is somehow worse than making things up using numbers pulled directly out of one's ass or trying to avoid the question entirely
Congratulations America
https://www.ft.com/content/7f7669a4-...0-9c0ad2d7c5b5
EU rejects Brexit trade deal for UK financial services sector
EU Brexit negotiators have set out a tough line on financial services, ruling out an ambitious trade deal for the lucrative sector and arguing that Europe would benefit from a smaller City of London, according to confidential discussions among the other 27 EU member states.
In a rebuff to the UK, which is seeking to put financial services at the heart of a trade deal with the bloc, an internal EU27 meeting this week concluded that future arrangements should be based on “equivalence” — the limited and revocable access given to third-country institutions — rather than a wide-ranging new pact.
At present, such provisions give financial groups from countries such as the US conditional access to the single market for some services.
“There was a strong commission message that there would be no special deal,” said an EU diplomat briefed on the discussions — a first attempt to thrash out the bloc’s position on the issue before negotiations with Britain start in March. “The UK is being told from the beginning what the situation is.”
Another EU diplomat said: “They are out of the internal market, that’s it. There can only be a much less ambitious agreement.”
Ensuring that financial services are not badly hit by Brexit is a top priority for the UK, since the sector is Britain’s biggest source of exports and tax revenue.
Theresa May’s government has also argued that if the City were damaged it would adversely affect financial stability and EU groups’ cost of financing, while contributing to the fragmentation of the sector.
But participants said that in the EU27 meeting the European Commission played down the risks of cutting off the City to EU businesses, saying that the financial sector was mobile enough to adapt.
They added that the commission maintained that a smaller City could benefit financial stability and the development of capital markets in the EU27, an argument that Spain also vocally supported.
The discussion focused on future relations after a transition period that Brussels intends to end by December 31 2020.
The commission negotiator also told the meeting that giving the City extensive market access could leave the EU more vulnerable in a crisis.
Brussels’ fear is that, in a financial emergency, UK regulators would prioritise continuity in companies’ UK operations over their activities in the EU27. This could lead to outflows of capital and liquidity or the withdrawal of vital services at a critical moment.
One senior diplomat said that the commission had underlined the importance of making sure that the EU did not lose “influence” over the UK financial sector, which could “have such a huge impact on the EU”.
While no country contradicted the approach of the commission, which is conducting the negotiations with the UK, the discussion highlighted differences between member states.
Germany, Sweden and Luxembourg cited the benefits of continuing co-operation with the UK, while France argued that the costs of a hard break would be limited and easy to contain.
Like the commission, Paris said there was a need to prevent the UK undercutting the bloc’s financial rules, and urged Brussels to encourage London-based companies to trigger relocation plans.
According to one person briefed on its thinking, the commission will send out notices warning a wide range of different financial groups to be prepared for Brexit and the lapse of the UK’s rights as an EU member.
These include banks and payment service providers, insurers, asset managers and brokerages, as well as auditors and credit-rating agencies.
Brussels has already prepared itself for Brexit by toughening its criteria for granting equivalence to systemically important non-EU financial centres, and the commission negotiator told the meeting that intensive talks would be needed with the UK on financial stability arrangements.
The commission official also said that the ball was in the UK’s court to set out ideas for how trade in financial services might operate after Brexit.A UK government official said: “We are confident of negotiating a deep and special economic partnership that includes a good deal for financial services, and protects the City of London’s position as the world’s leading financial centre.
“We start from the unique position of regulatory alignment and trust in one another’s institutions. The UK’s financial services sector plays an essential role in the European economy and so it is in the interests of all parties to secure a deal.”
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
The UK continues to be its own worst enemy in the negotiations:
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics...s-coming-to-uk
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Theresa May is a fucking moron, I wish my party would no confidence her. I have no confidence in her.
She asked for the transition. The EU has all-but-agreed the transition on the basis that the UK continues to respect the rules which of course include free movement. This is not a field to fight and die on. If you want a fight over something, try and ensure there's a protection of some sort that while we don't have voting rights a rule isn't put in that does us serious damage, or try to secure a good long-term deal - don't fight the existing rules during the transition period you asked for. MORON!
From the Brexiter perspective this makes perfect sense. You don't want a bunch of Bulgarians and Romanians sneaking in during the transition period and settling permanently in the UK.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
You mean from your warped interpretation of what a Brexiter is it may make sense. It doesn't make any sense to me. Unlike May I voted for Brexit.
May isn't a Brexiter and it shows. She has none of the sunny optimism that helped Gove and Boris win, instead she's pathetic and latched onto the small, closed-minded stereotype of what you imagine a Brexiter to be. She should go.
That might very well be because the party you vote for has a good 35 members who are rabid on the issue and by being rabid make any sensible move on your relationship with the EU impossible. It doesn't matter very much who is leading your government; as long as the Conservative Party selects people disregarding their extremism on Europe that party can never deliver on Europe.
Congratulations America
Indeed. They could put Bozo the Clown or the Reborn Jesus up there - it would matter not an iota.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
No, it makes sense from the perspective of that large group of Brexiters who've made their opposition to FoM and European immigration very clear, along with their opposition to a protracted transition that essentially keeps the UK in the EU, arrangements that keep the UK in the single market and their preference for a swift and hard Brexit in general.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
New Conservative Party logo is a stylized rendition of a drunk ostrich: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/9...579155974.html
These people are fucking incompetent.
Meanwhile, inspired by the shameful conduct of their counterparts on the other side of the pond, the Tories have declared an all-out war on career civil servants who are not permitted to defend themselves against this vileness: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/9...925178368.html
Tories have learned that the most effective approach is to tell your lies where they can't be challenged: https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/959016553198030848
Make no mistake--these are lies: http://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/state...-house-commons
If this were a novel, it would be panned for its absurdly foolish protagonists and the unrealistic plot.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Naw, that won't be a problem anyway:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-customs-union
So much for Rand's Norway or Switzerland choice. I guess that only leaves the nuclear option because there's only a snowball's chance in hell that Ireland will agree to any outcome.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
You do realise that while I personally would be happy with Norway or Switzerland, Norway is already ruled out and has been for a long time. The Vote Leave campaign ruled it out, so the country knew what we were voting on, and in her Lancaster House speech last year the Prime Minister explicitly ruled it out. Nothing has ever changed or varied since.
Though since when were Norway or Switzerland in the Customs Union? The Norway option has the benefits of being in the Single Market but outside the protectionist Customs Union.
Ireland knows we have all along said there will be no customs union. Its in their interests to agree a trade deal over there not being one.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Seems reasonable.
The british expats in Spain will be overjoyed by a reciprocal measure.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
You do realise that Spain is in the EU don't you? "Non-EU" doesn't apply to Spain.
You realize that you'll be "Non-EU" in just a few months?
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/hit-t...-leak-11240254
More leaks. Comment about Tory civil war is spot on.
Twitter Link
Last edited by Aimless; 02-07-2018 at 09:06 PM.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Brits settled in the Netherlands successful in getting their suit to retain EU citizenship and associated rights after Brexit referred to the ECJ:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...european-court
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Seems reasonable.
Agreed.
The chances of such a case being won are low. Most of all because allowing continued EU citizenship would assume the British government is willing to uphold the technical and financial obligations underpinning freedom of movement
Congratulations America
I'm wondering if they may consider this to be a permanent acquired right in the case of people who've been settled in eg. the Netherlands for a long time. In reality I expect they will not retain their EU citizenship unless they apply for Dutch citizenship.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
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